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With or Without You?

Searching for a New European Policy on Turkey

29.11.2022 - 01.12.2022


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In recent years, bilateral ties between Turkey and the EU were marked by turbulences. Numerous contentious issues have emerged in the relation between Ankara and EU member states. Seen from the perspective of the EU and its members, Turkey appears to shift back and forth between the role of a crucial policy partner and strategic rival. Despite these difficulties and challenges, Turkey and Europe have many shared interests and there are multiple connections that reach far beyond the official relations. In mid-2023 Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections which are crucial for the future of the country. It is therefore timely to ask what lies ahead in EU-Turkey relations?

This conference is strictly following the Chatham House rule. It is a joint endeavor by Southeast Europe Society (SOG) and the Protestant Academy Loccum.  Working language is English. German-English interpretation is provided.



Dienstag, 29.11.2022
14:00 Uhr
Words of Welcome

Christian HAGEMANN, Executive Director, Southeast Europe Association (Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft – SOG), Munich
Thomas MÜLLER-FÄRBER, Program Director, International Affairs, Protestant Academy Loccum

14:15 Uhr
INTRODUCTORY TALK: What Has Shaped the Ties between Turkey and the EU in the Past? How Will the Relation Look Like in the Future?

Günter SEUFERT, Head, Center for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) and Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin

15:15 Uhr
Coffee & Cake

15:45 Uhr
PANEL DISCUSSION: How is Turkey Doing? Exploring the Current Situation from Different Perspectives

Impulses on…

…Ankara’s Foreign Policy

Selin NASI, London Representative of the Ankara Policy Center (APM), Non-Resident Scholar ELIAMEP (Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy) and Columnist at PolitikYol, London

… the Socio-Economic Situation in Turkey

Ahmet Erdi ÖZTÜRK, Associate Professor from London Metropolitan University, Marie Curie Fellow at Coventry University (CTPSR) and GIGA (German Institute for Global and Area Studies), London

… Domestic Politics and the Upcoming Election Campaign

Burak ÇOPUR, Professor and Political Scientist, IU International University (Essen) and Institute for Turkistik, University Duisburg-Essen

16:45 Uhr
Coffee & Tea Break

17:00 Uhr
Continued Discussion with Panelist in Breakout-Session

17:45 Uhr
FORECAST SESSION: What Might Happen After the Elections in June 2023

Group I:

What will happen if the AKP wins?

Group II:

What will happen if the opposition wins?

Group III:

Is ‘Cohabitation’ possible in Turkey? What happens if the AKP wins the presidential election but loses the parliamentary majority – or the other way around?

18:30 Uhr

19:30 Uhr
Forecast Session continues

20:30 Uhr
Brief Presentation & Discussion of Forecast Findings

21:15 Uhr
Informal Get-together

Mittwoch, 30.11.2022
08:15 Uhr

09:30 Uhr
PANEL DISCUSSION: Russia, Turkey and the War in Ukraine: Europe’s Eroded Security Architecture and It’s Implication for the EU-Turkey Relation

Yevgeniya GABER, Senior Fellow at the Centre in Modern Turkish Studies (MTS) and at the Atlantic Council, Odessa
Taha OZHAN, Director of Research, Ankara Institute and Former Chairman of Foreign Affairs Committee of Turkish Parliament, Ankara
Sümbül KAYA, Turkey Research Fellow, Institute de Recherche Stratégique de l’Ecole Militaire, Ministère des Armées, Paris
Manuel SARRAZIN, Germany’s Special Representative for the Countries of the Western Balkans and President of the Southeastern Europe Society, Berlin
Klaus WÖLFER, Diplomat and Austria’s Former Ambassador to Turkey (2012 – 2017), Vienna

11:15 Uhr
Coffee & Tea Break

11:45 Uhr
BREAKOUT SESSION: Crucial Fields in the EU-Turkish Relations (1st Part)

Forum I: Disputed Islands and Waters: Conflicts on Gas and Territory in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea

Yücel ACER, Professor of International Law, Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Ankara
Ioannis N. GRIGORIADIS, Head, Turkey Program, Hellenic Foundation of European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) and Associate Professor for European Studies at Bilkent University, Ankara/ Athens
Nigar GÖKSEL, Head of Office, Crisis Group, Istanbul
Arno KIRCHHOF, Head, Turkey Division (208), German Foreign Office, Berlin

Forum II: Freedom of Press and Rule of Law

Florent DUPLOUY, Legal Advisor, Safety of Journalists Platform, Council of Europe, Strasbourg
Burcu KARAKAS, Investigative Journalist and Turkey correspondent for Germany’s international broadcaster Deutsche Welle, Istanbul
Emma SINCLAIR-WEBB, Associate Director and Turkey Director, Human Rights Watch, Berlin/Istanbul
Kerem ÖKTEM, Senior Fellow, Department of Comparative Cultural Studies, Ca' Foscari University, Venice

12:30 Uhr

14:30 Uhr
Breakout Session Part I continues

15:30 Uhr
Coffee & Cake

16:00 Uhr
BREAKOUT SESSION: Crucial Fields in the EU-Turkish Relations (Part II)

Forum III: From Iraq via Syria to Libya – EU-Turkish Relations in Light of the MENA’s Regions Conflict Zones

Meliha Benli ALTUNISIK, Professor at the Department of International Relations, Middle East Technical University (METU), Non-Resident Fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI) in D.C., Ankara
Ioannis BEGKOS, Head, Turkey Division, European External Action Service, Brussels
Maria FANTAPPIE, Senior Adviser for MENA, Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, Geneva
Guney YILDIZ, Journalist and Regional Researcher at Amnesty International, London

Forum IV: The EU-Turkish Policy on Refugees and Migration

Sinem ADAR, Associate, Center for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) and German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin
Erkut EMCIOGLU, European Stability Initiative (ESI), Istanbul
Angeliki VOTSOGLOU, Policy Officer, Migration and Rule of Law, DG Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations, European Commission, Brussels
Friedrich PÜTTMANN, Researcher, Istanbul Policy Center at Sabancı University, Istanbul/London

Forum V: Pivot to Asia and Africa: What Consequences Turkey’s Changing Economic Ties Might have on Europe?

Jens BASTIAN, enter for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) and Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), and Member of Board of the Southeast Europe Society, Berlin
Nebahat Tanrıverdi YASAR, Center for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) and Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin
Dilek AYDIN, TUSIAD (Turkish Industry & Business Association) Representative to the EU & BusinessEurope, Brussels
Helke TOLKSDORF, Former Head of the Department EU Enlargement, Eastern Europe and Turkey at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Member of Board of the Southeast Europe Society, Berlin
Moderation: Hansjörg BREY, Southeast Europe Association; Member of Board of the Southeast Europe Society, Berlin

17:00 Uhr
Coffee & Tea Break

17:30 Uhr
Breakout Session (Part II) continues

18:30 Uhr

19:30 Uhr
EVENING SESSION: Hyper-Connection – Reflecting on the Strong Social, Cultural, and Personal Ties that Link Turkey with Germany beyond Official Relations

Ayşe Utku ERARSLAN, Director, CultureCIVIC, Goethe-Institute, Istanbul
Özcan MUTLU, President of the German-Turkish Twincity Federation, former MdP of the German Bundestag (The Greens) and author of the book “60 Jahre - Wie Deutschland zur Heimat wurde” (Correctiv 2021), Berlin
Osman OKKAN, Journalist, film-maker, and Co-Founder of the KulturForum TürkeiDeutschland e.V., Köln
Moderation: Thomas SCHAD, Historian, Humboldt University Berlin

21:00 Uhr
Informal Get-together

Donnerstag, 01.12.2022
08:30 Uhr

09:30 Uhr
GALLERY WALK: Presentation of the Breakout Sessions’ Results

10:30 Uhr
Coffee & Tea Break

10:45 Uhr
PANEL DISCUSSION: What Guidelines Shall Shape EU-Turkish Relations in the Years to Come

Food-for-Thought Inputs by:

Ebru TURHAN, Associate professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Turkish-German University (TDU) and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for European Politics (IEP), Istanbul
Max LUCKS, Member of the Bundestag (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) Chairman of the Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid Committee, Head of the German-Turkey Parliamentarian Group, Berlin

followed by plenum discussion

12:30 Uhr
Farewell Lunch


** prel. confirmed